When will the US ban TikTok, and what will happen to creators?

No, you're not dreaming. The US is on the verge of banning TikTok, the wildly popular video-sharing app. And there's a very good chance it will happen.

Driven by national security concerns about consumer data, Congress has passed legislation that will ban TikTok from Sunday 19 January, unless its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, sells its Stateside operation to a US entity. ByteDance has disputed this legislation in the courts, and the Supreme Court will hear arguments on Friday.

If the Supreme Court sides with Congress, TikTok will be out of legal options and will have just eight days to negotiate a deal. That seems unlikely in the extreme, particularly as ByteDance has said that breaking up TikTok in this way just is not an option.

Incoming President Donald Trump tried (but failed) to ban the app during his first term, although on the campaign trail for his re-election, he said he'd had a change of heart. But what he could do legally to stop the coming ban is questionable, and now he's won the election, it doesn't seem there's much incentive for him to do so.

While the UK may seem far removed from this political drama, the potential consequences of a US ban could have a significant ripple effect on the global content creation landscape, affecting us all. So if TikTok is banned on 19 January, what will actually happen?

1. An end to updates

The first thing to note is that TikTok won't be forcibly removed from people's phones. Americans will be able to continue using the app as before. The main issue, though, is that they won't be able to get updates. Specifically, the law prohibits any entity from facilitating the maintenance of the TikTok application, and that includes the likes of third-party software and hosting providers.

Consequently, over time, the app will become glitchy and ultimately stop working. When that will happen, though, is anyone's guess.

2. No new downloads

A second consequence of a ban will be that app stores such as the Apple Apple Store and Google Play must remove the TikTok app from 19 January. From this date on, no one in the US will be able to download TikTok to their phone or tablet.

TikTok currently has 170 million American users, so that won't make a huge impact in the short term. But over time, as people upgrade their phones, they'll lose access to TikTok, and younger people entering the marketplace won't be able to download TikTok either.

3. An exodus of creators

Given that TikTok won't immediately be removed from people's phones, the platform can probably keep going in the US for at least a few months. But anyone producing regular content for TikTok will at least start diversifying to other short-form video platforms if they have any sense; it's not like there's a shortage of them.

Certainly, no one focused on US users will launch anything new on the platform. And so, culturally speaking, TikTok in the US will likely, at some point, become a dead duck.

4. The flow of money stops

There's also the business side of things. TikTok's ad revenue in the United States has been increasing significantly in recent years and is estimated to have reached $11 billion in 2024, a 25.8% increase from 2024. But it's likely to decline sharply if the ban comes into force, and influencers looking to partner with US brands will likely find the same dynamic in play. After all, if your nation's lawmakers, on both sides of the house, have decided a company is an enemy of the people, it's not a great look to associate with it.

Creators might, of course, continue producing TikTok content that drives people to other channels like YouTube, where they can monetise their following. But this does beg the question: why would they bother rather than put all their efforts into YouTube in the first place?

5. Effect on other countries

Outside the US, will the ban lead to a decline in TikTok audience elsewhere? It's difficult to know. After all, despite the cultural hegemony of America in the 2020s, it's not all anyone cares about. Hence the fact that many social platforms that are virtually unknown in the United States are dominant in other regions and countries, such as Telegram in India, Line in Japan, Thailand and Taiwan, and WeChat in China. Also, bear in mind that several countries have already banned TikTok, most notably India, and yet its global popularity has survived just fine so far.

Ultimately, then, I'd say there's no immediate need to panic. Anyone in the UK who produces content for TikTok will probably find their videos are being viewed and shared on 20 January just as much as today, even if the ban is enacted. Indeed, there may even be a small bump in interest as Americans grab their phones and start bingeing TikTok while the going's still good.

In the medium term, though, the future of TikTok in the US looks murky, to say the least. So, at the bare minimum, any content maker should look to diversify to other platforms and ideally think about making an online home of their own—one that no one can ever shut down.